Parcel radar

An overview and a forecast of the delivery times

In our Package Radar you will find two new overviews every Monday morning. One in which we show you how the delivery times have developed over the weeks of 2020. A second in which we make a prediction about the average delivery times for the coming week. That way you know how busy the carriers are. Would you like to know how to best anticipate this? Make an appointment with one of our experts, who will give you the appropriate advice.

Whether it is busy? Well, huge! The last few weeks the media has been talking a lot about the parcel pressure. In summary, the story is actually simple: people's online purchasing behavior has skyrocketed over the past year, so much so that carriers struggle to deliver all orders on time. The message is therefore to order everything as soon as possible. Keep in mind that there is a chance that your order will not arrive on time.

Graph 1: Average delivery times in 2020

The graph below shows the development of the delivery times * of delivered shipments in 2020.

* Delivery time is the time from the first scan of the shipping label at the carrier to the delivery scan (so when the package has been received by the recipient).

No rights can be derived from these data.

New record for average delivery times in week 49

Last week we showed you that the average delivery time for week 49 was 4,7 working days. Since 5,7 percent was still on the way, we expected the delivery time to increase even further. Finally, the average delivery time of week 49 ended at 5,1 working days, a record for 2020. 

After this extremely busy week, we will fall back to lower delivery times in weeks 50 and 51. In week 50 we see an average delivery time of 2,9 days. This has therefore increased slightly compared to last week (2,6 working days). 1 percent of that week is still underway. The average delivery time of week 51 is now 2,4 working days, with 8,12 percent of packages still on the way.

Graph 2: Prediction of delivery times week 53

The graph below shows a prediction of the average delivery times * that we expect in week 53. We predict the moment from pick-up to delivery, within the Netherlands.

* Delivery time is the time from the first scan of the shipping label at the carrier to the delivery scan (so when the package has been received by the recipient).

No rights can be derived from these data.

Increasing delivery times towards the end of the week

After the hustle and bustle around the Christmas period, peace is now returning a bit. Towards the end of the week we do see that the delivery times increase again. This has to do with New Year's Eve. This Thursday, all carriers (included in this analysis) will be working with an adjusted schedule. 

The last pick-ups are in the afternoon, so orders placed afterwards will not be picked up. DPD does not collect shipments on December 31. Shipments that are picked up on Thursday December 31, will be delivered Saturday January 2 and Monday January 4. 

The carriers are closed on Friday, January 1, which is why this day cannot be seen, as nothing will be picked up then. Click here you will find more information about the adjusted schedule.

Accountability analysis

For the graphs 'Average delivery times in 2020' we look at the working days between the pick-up and delivery of each service (which services we included, you can read below). For the graph 'Prediction of delivery times week 53' we look at the entire week. For B2C shipments, Saturday is counted as a working day, except for shipments from GLS. For business recipients, we assume that no shipments will be delivered on Saturday. Both private and business shipments are included in these analyzes. Left last week different parcelshop know they are closing. This does not affect our analyzes, as parcels with destination parcelshop or parcels that are ultimately delivered to a parcelshop, are not included in our calculations. The graphs are only based on shipments within the Netherlands. 

To predict the data, a time series analysis (time series statistical modeling) was used.

The graphs are based on shipments with the largest Dutch carriers. The following services are included in this:

  • DHL Europlus Benelux
  • DHL Parcel Connect
  • DPD Classic
  • DPD Home
  • DPD Parcelletter
  • GLS Business Parcel
  • GLS Euro Business Parcel
  • PostNL
  • PostNL Letterbox package

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